Time travel, coincidence, Big Data analysis... Many reasons are jokingly speculated for the show, which has been on the air for decades, to keep surprising its viewers with predictions that seemed unimaginable.
William Edwards Deming
"In God we trust; all others must bring data."
"In God we trust; all others must bring data."
The list of times "The Simpsons" predicted the future of technology and society in general is extensive. Every now and then we see cases like this – it has already happened with Donald Trump's election, smartwatches, autocorrect on cell phones... But how does the cartoon manage to get so much right?
Time travel, coincidence, Big Data analysis... Many reasons are jokingly speculated for the show, which has been on the air for decades, to keep surprising its viewers with predictions that seemed unimaginable.
The website Mic spoke with a former executive from The Simpsons, a statistician, and a math professor to try to understand what lies behind so many correct predictions. And the reasons are more mundane than you think.
1 - It's all a matter of quantity
A futuristic episode from 1995 shows Lisa talking to her mother on a phone that featured a real-time video screen
The series "The Simpsons" has been on the air since 1989. Over 600 episodes have already been shown on TV. In each episode, there is a huge amount of jokes. You get the idea, right? The more content, the higher the chance that at least some of the scenes portrayed in certain episodes will be right.
"We've done a zillion television episodes, so there are plenty of opportunities to make predictions. I don't think anyone talks about the predictions that The Simpsons got wrong, but the list is much longer than the things they got right," pointed out to the website Daniel Chun, a former executive of the show.
The number of predictions in the series is indeed not low. Matt Zaremsky, an assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Albany, estimates that the cartoon made over 120,000 jokes in its 29 seasons, based on an average of 8.54 per minute in the first 12 seasons. To this count, more than 1,200 "explicit predictions about the future" are added.
"Of the episodes based on the future, I estimate 500 predictions in total. Of the other regular episodes, I estimate one per episode, which would make 624 (up to the time of the interview)," he points out.
Of all the predictions, many cite 20 as the number of correct predictions, although the number can and should be higher. If we consider 20 out of 1,224, the success rate is 1.6%.
With 20 correct predictions out of 1,224, the success rate is 1.6%
Matt Zaremsky
2 - What is a prediction?
The Simpsons and a sort of Apple Watch in 1995
Another topic raised by the website is that people are generous with the word "prediction." Many articles and videos are made about the prophecies of The Simpsons, but these visions of the future are not necessarily shocking or specific to the show. One example cited is that the wrist phone (resembling today's smartwatches) in a '95 episode is not that original.
"The example is that The Simpsons had something that looked like an Apple Watch. Well, a wrist communication device goes back as far as Dick Tracy (a comic strip that debuted in 1931) and the Apple Watch's features are not going to be exactly the same as what The Simpsons had on the watch. You have to decide whether that is a prediction or not," says Gary Simon, a retired professor of statistics at the New York University Stern School of Business.
3 – The style of the show
A hat with a camera in a 1994 episode strongly resembles GoPro cameras
Because The Simpsons is a cartoon, the writers can put any real-life celebrity they want into the episodes – as happened with Donald Trump in 2000. The writers can also create different realistic predictions because the show is set in modern times very similar to our present society.
Obviously, a cartoon can make many more predictions than TV dramas set in the past, like Downton Abbey. Comedy shows are also written in a way that viewers consider more realistic, according to Chun. Many doctors consider the comedy Scrubs more realistic of hospital life than the drama ER, according to the former executive.
"When writing a drama, the writer usually tries to have principles and depicts a society that truly respects morals, where everyone is very serious and acts with the utmost integrity at all times," he points out.
Of course, in recent years, The Simpsons family has gained a major competitor in predicting the future: the sci-fi series Black Mirror, currently on Netflix, whose exact purpose is to predict a futuristic society based on our current technologies.
4 – The writers' cynicism
A sort of autocorrect appeared in a 1994 episode with an Apple Newton device
Part of the correct predictions of The Simpsons is also associated with the writers' style. They are cynical and portray their worldview in the show.
"There is a worldview that the writers share with some basic principles. Among them, that people are greedy and that corporations are terrible and have a tendency to ruin everything. Corruption is rampant, and society as a whole has the memory of a goldfish," says Chun, a former executive of the show.
Any resemblance to reality? Well, as long as society keeps going this way, The Simpsons will keep getting it right.
"The statistics say that The Simpsons had so many jokes and predictions that they essentially just got lucky."